A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
