Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
