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A mere eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as the Villa manager scolded him over missing a through-ball. During that period, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for the team's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

This weekend, though, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. After the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their opening six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Challengers?

That’s an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. History, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, even as the positive results have stacked up.

As per Opta, in only two games have Villa posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a side which has just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear strangely fragile – yet right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping Rogers to save the day with some precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened versus Manchester United.

His opener came from a superb shot, arced just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting his shots into the top corner forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists another reality in which, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.

• The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.

The current run must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.